March as another month of improving consumer moods among Poles
The results of the GfK Consumer Mood Index – March 2010
Warsaw, 31 March 2010 – The Polish consumer moods have improved for the fourth month in succession. Following the considerable improvement in December, the stabilisation in January and a return to the previous growth trends in February, March saw further significant improvement in the consumer climate in Poland. The value of the GfK Consumer Mood Index for Poland rose from -18.8 points in February to -16.3 points in March.
Equally importantly, the index rose to a record level from the down caused by the crisis precisely 12 months ago – in March 2009. Since then, it has recovered over half of the losses recorded in 2009 compared to its record high of December 2007.
The continued growth dynamics observed in recent months illustrate the improving consumer climate and suggest that the growth trend will continue in the following months.
The current wave of the survey recorded higher evaluations of the future economic situation in households, the possible changes on the job market in the next 12 months and the tendency to save in the next 12 months. In contrast, the evaluations of the anticipated change in the country’s economic situation have dropped.
Evaluation of the future economic situation in households – improvement
The evaluation of the future economic situation in households improved considerably in March. The index value rose by 4 points during the month and now stands at -2 points. In the last 12 months, i.e. since March 2009, when the evaluations of the economic situation in households reached their local minimum, the index level has increased by 14 points. In value terms, it is a little more than half of the loss generated by the crisis in comparison to its maximum values recorded throughout 2008.
What is also crucial, throughout last year and in the beginning of this year the respondents tended to evaluate their households’ economic prospects more optimistically in comparison to the prospects of the whole country’s economy. Looking back, a similar tendency observed for longer periods has always had a positive impact on the Poles’ economic behaviour and stimulated economic growth. Therefore, a similar scenario is highly likely at the moment.
Evaluation of the future economic situation in the country – deterioration
In March, the evaluations of the future economic situation in the country deteriorated slightly. The index level reached -5 points in February whereas in March it fell to -8 points. However, since March 2009, when the index recorded its ‘crisis’ minimum, its value rose by 26 points recovering a significant share of the losses recorded throughout 2008 and in the beginning of 2009.
Evaluation of the future situation on the job market – improvement
Following the dissipation of fears concerning the situation on the job market and the stabilisation of moods in February, the evaluation of the job market prospects continued to improve in March. The index grew by 2 points in comparison to the previous month, and its value now stands at -23 points.
Similarly to the above index components, i.e. the evaluation of the future economic situation of households and that of the country’s economic prospects, the anticipated unemployment level reached its lowest value in March 2009, slightly nearing its all-time minimum of May 2001. After 12 months, the index gained 36 points, growing as dynamically in the whole of 2009 and in the first quarter of 2010 as it had declined during the whole second half of 2008.
Tendency to save – considerable growth
The index illustrating households’ tendency to save rose by 7 points in March, reaching the level of -32 points. Hence, it neared its all-time maximum of -31 points recorded in August 2009.
Consumer mood in the European Union – stabilisation
Following a few months of stabilisation, the GfK Consumer Mood Index for the whole European Union recorded a slight decrease. From the February level of -14.6 points, its value dropped by 0.6 points to -15.2 points.
GfK Consumer Mood Index *
Synthetic Index – March 2010
About the survey
The GfK Consumer Mood Index is an aggregated index commissioned by the European Commission and calculated on the basis of the same formula since 1985. Currently, the index includes all 27 countries. The data for Poland come from the GfK survey co-financed by the European Commission, and the data for the European Union – from the European Commission.
The next GfK Consumer Mood Index results are to be published on 30 April 2010
*About the chart
The above chart illustrates a synthetic index for Poland and the European Union based on the following components:
Evaluation of the future economic situation in households Index based on respondents’ answers to the question: "How do you think the financial situation of your household will change in the next 12 months?” Answers: improve significantly, improve a little, remain the same, worsen a little, worsen significantly Evaluation of the future economic situation in the country Index based on respondents’ answers to the question: "How do you think the economic situation in the country will change in the next 12 months?” Answers: improve significantly, improve a little, remain the same, worsen a little, worsen significantly Evaluation of the future situation on the job market Index based on respondents’ answers to the question: "How do you think the unemployment rate in Poland will change in the next 12 months?” Answers: increase decidedly, increase a little, remain the same, decrease a little, decrease decidedly Tendency to save Index based on respondents’ answers to the question: "How likely do you think it is that you will be able to save money in the next 12 months?” Answers: very likely, rather likely, rather unlikely, very unlikely
About GfK Polonia
GfK Polonia is ranked No. 3 among Polish market research agencies. In 2007, it had a turnover of PLN 65.1 million (in 2006: 61.6 million). It employs 167 people.
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