Improvement of consumer moods in December

Whether this trend will change in the following months largely depends on two factors which will determine future consumer moods:  the overcoming of the negative phenomena in the economy and the launch of the election campaign with the possible strongly negative communication from specific candidates for presidency. What will also be important in the short term is the effect of the seasonal post-Christmas factors influencing the condition of household budgets, i.e. the higher winter costs and the consequences of excessive Christmas shopping.

The present wave of the survey recorded an increase in all the index components, i.e. the evaluation of the future economic situation in households, the anticipated economic situation in the country in the next 12 months, the evaluation of the possible changes on the job market in the next 12 months and the evaluation of the tendency to save in the next 12 months.

Evaluation of the future economic situation in households and in the country: continued stabilisation

The evaluation of the future economic situation in households has grown by 2 points in December and returned to the level recorded in October. The index value now stands at -5 points. The index stability in the last three quarters indicates that there are no considerable reasons for consumers to be more concerned about their future economic prospects.

The evaluation of the future economic situation in the country has not changed considerably in comparison to the previous month, either. The positive opinions on the condition of the Polish economy result in calmer moods and better forecasts for the future. In December, the index has recorded another growth to -9 points. Unless the political climate obscures the positive forecasts, the index can be expected to stabilise further in January and to recover from the severe declines recorded at the turn of 2008 and 2009.

Evaluation of the future situation on the job market: continued improvement

Following the index growth by 4 points in November, the consumer moods and the evaluations of the situation on the job market continued to improve in December. The index value now stands at -26 points, which signals the gradually recovering optimism and the continuation of the general growth trend of 2009.

Tendency to save: slight growth

The Christmas period does not encourage consumers to think about saving. The index illustrating households’ tendency to save has increased slightly by 3 points in December, and now stands at -42 points. However, it only seems to be a slight correction of the downward trend which began in August. The trend direction is not likely to reverse in the following months, and only its dynamics may slow down.

Consumer mood in the European Union

Considering the survey analysis schedule, the December’s synthetic index for all the countries of the European union will be published on 7 January 2010.

GfK Consumer Mood Index *

Synthetic Index – December 2009