Households increasingly less willing to save. The results of the GfK Consumer Mood Index, November 2009

Warsaw, 27 November 2009 – November has been yet another month that recorded a decline in the GfK Consumer Mood Index for Poland. The index has lost 1 point in comparison to that of October, which reached -23.3, and now its value stands at -24.5. This shows that the index trend is similar to that of the previous month. This tendency is not likely to change due to the continued influence of two crucial seasonal factors on household budgets, i.e. the rising winter expenses and the Christmas shopping.

The present wave of the survey recorded declining evaluations of the tendency to save in the next 12 months, which determined the direction of changes in the whole Consumer Mood Index.  No considerable changes have been recorded for such index components as the future economic situation in households and the anticipated economic situation in the country in the next 12 months. The evaluations of the possible changes on the job market in the next 12 months have increased slightly.

Evaluation of the future economic situation in households and in the country: continued stabilisation

The evaluation of the future economic situation in households has declined by 2 points in November, and now stands at -7 points. The index stability indicates that consumers are not concerned about the future economic prospects.

The evaluation of the future economic situation in the country has not changed considerably in comparison to the previous month, either. The calmer situation in politics following the gambling scandal resulted in the calming of moods and in better evaluations. In November, the index has recorded a slight growth to -13 points. Unless the political climate in the country changes, the index can be expected to remain on the same level in the December survey.

Evaluation of the future situation on the job market: instability

Following the decline in October, the value of this index increased by 4 points, and now stands at -33 points. The sense of security and stability on the job market which was undermined a year ago is extremely difficult to rebuild. In November, the respondents’ evaluations with respect to the future prospects clearly improved. However, they are still close to those of the beginning of 2004 and a far cry from the growth recorded in 2007.

Tendency to save: considerable decline

The prospect of Christmas, the expenses it entails, and the lack of explicit signals of improving economic situation do not encourage consumers to think about saving. To the contrary, the index illustrating households’ tendency to save dropped by 8 points in November, and now stands at -45 points, resulting in the decline of the whole GfK Consumer Mood Index.

Consumer mood in the European Union: stabilisation

The GfK Consumer Mood Index for the whole European Union is stabilising after a few months of continued growth. In November, it declined slightly by another 0.2 points, and now stands at -15.9 points.

About the survey

The GfK Consumer Mood Index is an aggregated index commissioned by the European Commission and calculated on the basis of the same formula since 1985. Currently, the index includes all 27 countries. The data for Poland come from the GfK survey co-financed by the European Commission, and the data for the European Union – from the European Commission.

The next GfK Consumer Mood Index results are to be published on 29 December 2009.

*About the chart

The above chart illustrates a synthetic index for Poland and the European Union based on the following components:

About GfK Polonia

GfK Polonia is ranked No. 3 among Polish market research agencies. In 2007, it had a turnover of PLN 65.1 million (in 2006: 61.6 million). It employs 167 people.