Consumer moods – decline in July after a few months of growth
The results of the GfK Consumer Mood Index, July 2009
Warsaw, 3 August 2009 – After a three-month growth, Poles’ economic mood declined in July. The GfK Consumer Mood Index decreased by 4 points last month, and now stands at -23.5 points. External factors and changes in other monitored indexes show that it is just a correction of the three-month growth rather than the trend’s reversal.
All the index components, i.e. the evaluation of the future economic situation in households, the anticipated change in the country’s economic situation, the anticipated change on the job market and the evaluation of savings opportunities, deteriorated in July, which led to a drop in the synthetic consumer mood index.
The same index for the whole European Union maintained the growth trend.
Evaluation of the future economic situation in households: slight drop
The evaluation of the future economic situation in households decreased by 3 points after a comparable growth by 4 points in June. The index returned to the level of last April, and now stands at -7 points.
The constant fluctuation range of the index illustrating the evaluation of the future economic situation in households in the second quarter of the year confirms that consumers’ evaluation of their future economic prospects stabilised despite continued presence of the economic crisis in the media.
Evaluation of the future economic situation in the country: strong correction
The evaluation of the future economic situation in the country decreased by 7 points, which indicates the return of the index to the level of May this year after the previous month’s increase by 7 points.
The index now stands at -18 points, and its drop in July can be viewed as a correction of the previous months’ growth and the end of the previous growth dynamics.
Evaluation of the future situation on the job market: slight correction
The evaluation of the job market prospects deteriorated slightly in July. The index value decreased by 2 points in comparison to the previous month, and now stands at -31 points.
Tendency to save: slight drop
The index illustrating households’ tendency to save decreased by 4 points in July, and now stands at -38 points. Fluctuations of this index are slight and its decrease in July is just a correction of the growth recorded in April and May.
Consumer moods: still better in the EU
The Consumer Mood Index continues to grow in the whole European Union and now stands at -19.8 points. This time the index increased by 1.2 points.
The GfK Consumer Mood Index for Poland reached -23.5 points in July, falling by 4 points in comparison to the previous month.
The whole European Union maintained its consumer mood growth dynamics whereas the potential of Polish consumers’ optimism failed to last through the second quarter of the year and temporarily expired.
About the survey
The GfK Consumer Mood Index is an aggregated index commissioned by the European Commission and calculated on the basis of the same formula since 1985. Currently, the index includes all 27 countries. The data for Poland come from the GfK survey co-financed by the European Commission, and the data for the European Union – from the European Commission.
The next GfK Consumer Mood Index results are to be published on 1 September 2009.
The above chart presents a synthetic index based on the following components:
Evaluation of the future economic situation in households | <>Index based on respondents’ answers to the question: "How do you think the financial situation of your household will change in the next 12 months?” Answers: improve significantly, improve a little, remain the same, worsen a little, worsen significantly | <>
Evaluation of the future economic situation in the country | <>Index based on respondents’ answers to the question: "How do you think the economic situation in the country will change in the next 12 months?” Answers: improve significantly, improve a little, remain the same, worsen a little, worsen significantly | <>
Evaluation of the future situation on the job market | <>Index based on respondents’ answers to the question: "How do you think the unemployment rate in Poland will change in the next 12 months?” Answers: increase decidedly, increase a little, remain the same, decrease a little, decrease decidedly | <>
Tendency to save | <>Index based on respondents’ answers to the question: "How likely do you think it is that you will be able to save money in the next 12 months?” Answers: very likely, rather likely, rather unlikely, very unlikely | <>
The GfK Group
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GfK Polonia
GfK Polonia is ranked No. 3 among Polish market research agencies. In 2008, it had a turnover of PLN 65.1 million (in 2007: 61.6 million). It employs 167 people.
Custom Research
| <>It provides information necessary for developing, positioning and preserving products and services on the market. It facilitates optimising marketing mix, product and brand management processes. Also, it analyses consumer loyalty. | <>
Retail and Technology | <>It monitors and analyses the sales in markets of: home and office electronic equipment, household appliances, mobile phones, photographic equipment, DIY appliances and lighting devices. | <>
Media
| <>It provides information about the way and intensity of using the media and the level of their acceptance by consumers. Research includes television, radio, press, Internet and outdoor media. | <>
